The fragile Israel-Hezbollah truce is holding so far, despite violations.

Trending: Fragile Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire likely to hold, analysts say:

Miriam Kourani removes a toy car from the rubble of her destroyed house after returning with her family to the Hanouiyeh village in Southern Lebanon.

A fragile ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah has held up for over a month, even as its terms seem unlikely to be met by the agreed-upon deadline. The deal struck on Nov. 27 to halt the war required Hezbollah to immediately lay down its arms in southern Lebanon and gave Israel 60 days to withdraw its forces there and hand over control to the Lebanese army and U.N. peacekeepers. So far, Israel has only withdrawn from two of the many towns it controls in southern Lebanon. It has continued striking what it claims are Hezbollah bases, accusing the group of attempting to launch rockets and move weapons before they can be seized and destroyed. Hezbollah, which was severely diminished during nearly 14 months of war, has threatened to resume fighting if Israel does not fully withdraw its forces by the 60-day deadline.

"Documents said to belong to Hezbollah and seized by the Israeli military in its ground invasion of southern Lebanon are displayed."

Despite accusations of ceasefire violations from both sides, analysts suggest the truce is likely to hold, offering hope for thousands of Israeli and Lebanese families displaced by the war and still waiting to return home.

“The ceasefire agreement is rather opaque and open to interpretation,” said Firas Maksad, a senior fellow with the Middle East Institute in Washington. That flexibility, he said, may give it a better chance of holding in the face of changing circumstances, including the ouster of Syria’s longtime leader, Bashar Assad, just days after the ceasefire took effect. 

Hezbollah due to al-Assad’s departure, lost a vital route for smuggling weapons from Iran. While that further weakened Hezbollah’s hand, Israel had already agreed to the U.S.-brokered ceasefire. Hezbollah first launched rockets into Israel on 8 October 2023, a day after Hamas attacked Israel which ignited the ongoing war in Gaza. Since then, Israeli air and ground assaults have killed more than 4,000 people in Lebanon, including hundreds of civilians. At the height of the war, more than a million Lebanese people were displaced. Hezbollah rockets forced some 60,000 from their homes in northern Israel and killed 76 people in Israel, including 31 soldiers. Almost 50 Israeli soldiers were killed in operations inside Lebanon.

What does the ceasefire agreement say?

The agreement says that both Hezbollah and Israel will halt “offensive” military actions, but that they can act in self-defense, although it is not entirely clear how that term may be interpreted. The Lebanese army is tasked with preventing Hezbollah and other militant groups from attacking Israel. It is also required to dismantle Hezbollah’s facilities and weapons in southern Lebanon. This task could eventually extend to the rest of the country, though this is not explicitly mentioned in the agreement.

The United States, France, Israel, Lebanon, and the U.N. peacekeeping force in Lebanon, known as UNIFIL, are responsible for overseeing the agreement's implementation. “The key question is not whether the deal will hold, but what version of it will be implemented,” Maksad, the analyst, said.

Is the ceasefire being implemented?

Hezbollah has for the most part halted its rocket and drone fire into Israel, and Israel has stopped attacking Hezbollah in most areas of Lebanon. But Israel has launched regular airstrikes on what it says are militant sites in southern Lebanon and in the Bekaa Valley.

Lebanon has accused Israel of repeatedly violating the ceasefire agreement and last week submitted a complaint to the U.N. Security Council that says Israel launched some 816 “ground and air attacks” between the start of the ceasefire and Dec. 22, 2024. Until it hands over control of more towns to the Lebanese army, Israel has been targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, including weapons warehouses and tunnels. Lebanese authorities say that Israel has also destroyed civilian homes and infrastructure.

What uncertainties remain regarding the 60 days after the ceasefire has taken place?

Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanese towns has been slower than anticipated because of a lack of Lebanese army troops ready to take over, according to Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, a military spokesman. Lebanon disputes this, arguing it is waiting for Israel to withdraw before it can deploy troops in the towns.

Israel does not consider the 60-day timetable for withdrawal to be “sacred,” said Harel Chorev, an expert on Israel-Lebanon relations at Tel Aviv University who estimates that Lebanon will need to recruit and deploy thousands more troops before Israel will be ready to hand over control.

Hezbollah officials have said that if Israeli forces remain in Lebanon 60 days past the start of the ceasefire, the militant group might return to attacking them. However, Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Kassem said on Wednesday that for now, the group is refraining from action to give the Lebanese state a chance to “take responsibility” for enforcing the agreement.

“The power imbalance suggests Israel may want to ensure greater freedom of action after the 60 days,” Maksad, the analyst, said. And Hezbollah, in its weakened position, now has a “strong interest” in making sure the deal doesn’t fall apart altogether “despite Israeli violations,” he said.

While Hezbollah may not be in a position to return to open war with Israel, it or other groups could mount guerrilla attacks using light weaponry if Israeli forces remain in southern Lebanon, according to former Lebanese Army General Hassan Jouni. And even if Israel does withdraw all of its ground forces, Jouni said, the Israeli military could continue to carry out sporadic airstrikes in Lebanon, much as it has done in Syria for years.

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